Bitcoin Inflows to Binance Spark Debate Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Data

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant increase in inflows to Binance over the past two weeks, raising questions among analysts as to whether this movement signals an impending sell-off or a potential rally.

According to Martijn Rechter-Schott, an analyst at CryptoQuant, Binance’s BTC holdings surged by 22,106 BTC—approximately $1.82 billion—over the past 12 days, bringing the exchange's total Bitcoin reserves to 590,874 BTC.

Rechter-Schott attributes this trend to heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, including anticipation surrounding the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on April 10, and ambiguity over President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies.

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Exchange Inflows: Sell Signal or Something Else?

Traditionally, large crypto inflows to exchanges are seen as a bearish indicator, signaling that investors may be preparing to sell. However, some analysts caution against drawing quick conclusions.

Pav Hundal, Lead Analyst at Swyftx, commented:

“A spike in exchange inflows doesn’t always mean a sell-off is imminent. Binance may simply be shifting assets into hot wallets to accommodate rising trading demand.”

Hundal emphasized that the next few days will be crucial in interpreting market sentiment, particularly following President Trump’s tariff adjustments.

On April 9, Trump announced a temporary 90-day suspension of his "reciprocal tariffs" policy, lowering tariffs to 10% for all countries except China. In contrast, he raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing "retaliatory measures."

“Tensions between the U.S. and China remain a structural risk,” Hundal added.

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Inflation Data in Focus

Another key variable is the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Wednesday. Analyst Matthew Hyland believes a sharp drop in inflation, potentially to 2.5%, could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

In March, CPI came in at 3.1%, slightly below the forecast of 3.2%, while the headline inflation rate dropped by 0.1%. These figures have historically had a strong impact on crypto market volatility.

As macroeconomic factors continue to shape investor sentiment, Bitcoin’s recent movements remain subject to multiple interpretations. Whether the inflows mark a strategic repositioning or a prelude to profit-taking, market participants are closely watching the next economic indicators for clues.